If To a Foreign Clime You Go
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The finance minister seems to be wanting to hear out the FPIs. Do you think some resolution can be expected? A rollback surely seems ruled out? Clearly, if you say I am willing to listen to you, they will say this woman has lost it. Let us go somewhere else. I mean they screamed loud, the whole thing was well debated, Nirmala Sitharaman knew exactly what the problem was and yet she went ahead and passed the finance bill without any amendment. So you go and you know what the problem is. You listen to the people screaming, you do nothing about it and then say you know I am willing to listen, let us talk about it.
I am sorry, this is not the way you are going to enthuse any foreign investment.
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Would you say it is imperative to do so because that in itself will revive demand a little better, try and rescue the situation a little bit, which you say is mostly global in nature? It is a very partial remedy to a very big problem. I said the fact that you do not have a conducive and competitive climate is a dampener not just for foreign investors but for Indian investors too. Over and above that, we have the problem of global headwinds, the whole world is slowing down.
One country after the other is having sharply falling exports including China, Korea and Singapore. When you have this kind of climate, in any case the global economy will be trending to pull India down over and above our own individual problems. So a rate cut by the RBI may have some impact especially on things which are linked to the rate of interest like the equalised monthly payments for housing. Some things like that may be positively impacted but I do not think they will be able to offset this much larger gloom of the global economy.
The positive thing may be that we now have a good monsoon.
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After a very dry June, we have had a very wet July. The reservoirs are looking pretty full. If there is a jump in the rural economy, that would certainly be a boost. A cut in the RBI rates it could be a boost. If the Iran problem is solved and oil prices fall, that could be a boost. It is possible to see some silver linings here and there but the outlook by and large is not favourable and I am not at all surprised that foreign investors have been fleeing. I would not be surprised if a number of Indian investors also began to say look, let me at least partially exit, the outlook is not good.
What can the government do to try and infuse growth back into the economy because that really seems to be the crux of the issue even with the FPI fraternity? If there is this huge global problem, the government cannot overcome a global rout by doing something. Secondly, we are definitely feeling the impact of a serious drought. In the last financial year, the agricultural growth was negative in the last quarter. It has pulled down the growth in the last quarter and until more money comes in after the next crop, the rural area is going to be short of money, you cannot get away from it in the short run.
Hopefully, good monsoon will provide some revival but the government will just have to wait for that. For the foreign portfolio investors, that would have been a positive gesture. The government sees it has made a mistake. When you make a mistake and you persist in that mistake and then pretend as though till now you have not heard what the foreigners are saying, that is not the way to go about it.
So yes, the RBI should be cutting interest rates. It makes sense because the consumer price inflation is low and there is a global slowdown. This is an appropriate time. What more could the government do? It could have gone for a fiscal stimulus. It has chosen on paper not to go for a fiscal stimulus but frankly the way I am seeing the numbers going, please do not believe this fiscal deficit number.
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I am sure that the actual revenue is going to be substantially lower and I would say perhaps the government should not then cut spending, let the fiscal deficit rise a little in this particular year because of the extraordinary circumstances, unless things are changed by a number of favourable developments like a good monsoon, the resolution of the Iran problem etc. You could have some relaxation on the fiscal side but please do not think that this will overcome the current slowdown.
The reasons for this slowdown are deep, the reason for foreigners getting disillusioned with India is deep, the reason for India simply not worrying about being competitive with Southeast Asia that requires a change in the mindset and a change in a whole lot of things from import duty, from subsidies of various kinds, from populist schemes of various kinds to labour wages, capital wages and land laws. So many things would need to be changed if we really want to become competitive and if you do not change those, maybe this is just the start of something more serious.
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